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UK Follows US in ‘Upgrading’ Taiwan Ties & Escalating Tensions With China, Analysts Say_我的网站

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一 | 8月25日消息，据报道，涵盖6英寸、8英寸、12英寸的全系列硅晶圆产品近日迎来价格上调，涨幅一成起跳。这是自2021至2022年缺芯潮之后，硅晶圆行业时隔三年首次出现实质性全尺寸涨价。此前的长协合同将价格锁在底部，随着2026年长协陆续到期，硅晶圆厂商终于打破价格枷锁。硅晶圆大厂台胜科透露，目前8英寸及12英寸产线均满载生产，近期8英寸市场需求明显增加。这一轮需求回暖并非偶然，最大的增量来自AI算力爆发。 The timing of the London visit by Taipei’s trade negotiator John Deng was important, says Dr. Victor Teo, political scientist specializing in international relations in the Asia-Pacific, because if China were to join the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) before the island, “it would mean the certain exclusion of Taiwan from this trade body in the future.”,After the reported trade talks in London on 16 June, Beijing, whose official policy envisions a peaceful unification of Taiwan with Mainland China, was quick to reiterate its stance.,“Taiwan is an inseparable part of China, it is not a country, which is universally recognized by the international community,” a Chinese diplomatic spokesperson was cited by Politico as saying.,The UK Trade Department stopped short of offering any clarifications, while confirming the meeting of its officials with Deng.,The British side was governed by “political and economic interests” when it opted to risk igniting China’s wrath, suggests Dr. Victor Teo.,The trade talks between the UK and Taiwan may also reflect a “change in UK’s policy toward Taiwan as a result of changes in its China policy,” notes Dr. Zhang Baohui, director of the Center for Asian Pacific Studies at Lingnan University in Hong Kong.,“The US led this trend by comprehensively upgrading its relations with Taipei since the Trump administration,” says Baohui, adding that Britain tended to tread with caution in its relations with Taiwan in the past. However, now the UK is “adjusting its China policy.”,The clash over Hong Kong, according to Dr. Zhang Baohui, “significantly enhanced their differences and mutual strategic mistrust.”,“For example, it sent an aircraft carrier to the South China Sea last summer, very much to the disliking of Beijing. The UK also formed a new trilateral security mechanism with Australia and the US last year while not naming China as its target. The UK's trade talk with Taiwan could be consistent with this new trend,” he said.,Beijing's reaction to any improper statement such as challenging Taiwan as an inseparable part of China can be expected, insisted Dr. Chang Ching, research fellow at the Taiwan-based Society for Strategic Studies.,However, the British government has a clear policy towards the sensitive One-China issue, the prominent military expert on the People's Liberation Army and regional security in Taiwan noted.,China Urges US to ‘Revoke Arms Sales Plan’ With Taiwan on News of $120 Million Deal for Ship Parts9 June, 20:46 GMT,“In the aspect of trade and commerce, any discussion with representatives from Taipei regarding the participation in the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership trading arrangement does not violate the One-China principle kept by Her Majesty's government. Nonetheless, it is originated by a media report and cannot be fully verified as the British official position,” he stated.,Dr. Chang Ching advised against defining such a statement as a “policy shift” within British government diplomacy.,US Provokes China in New Row Over Taiwan17 June, 09:14 GMT,‘Trade With China’ Factor,Regarding the regional fallout from a possible row between the UK and China over Taiwan, it is too early to predict the consequences, according to Dr. Zhang Baohui.,Underscoring that unlike Sino-US relations, Britain and China are not “strategic competitors,” he clarified:,“The UK has already boosted its presence in the region by its new trilateral security pact with Australia and the United States. It has also enhanced defense cooperation with Japan, by jointly developing the next generation jet fighter. However, Britain should have less incentives, compared to the US to have a contentious relationship with China.”,Sino-British relations should not have a major impact on the region in the foreseeable future, Dr. Zhang Baohui concluded.,Any spat over Taiwan would boost tensions in UK-China relations and West-China relations, Dr. Victor Teo suggested, but underscored the “declining economic circumstances” currently being faced by many countries. Accordingly, trade with China would likely become more important, according to him.,“As most Western countries have agreed on the 'One China Principle', it is hard to see how they can persist in promoting Taiwan’s interests steadfastly at the expense of their relationship with China,” Dr. Victor Teo said.,A row between London and Beijing would not affect anything in the region at all, Dr. Chang Ching asserted, adding:,“After all, Beijing is very near and London is too remote."。

二 | 据日本硅晶圆巨头SUMCO测算，AI服务器对12英寸硅片的需求量是通用型服务器的3.8倍，而HBM对12英寸硅片的消耗是主流DRAM的3倍。

三 | SUMCO预计，2026年AI相关应用对先进制程硅片的月需求将突破100万片，占全球12英寸硅片总需求的比例超过10%。与此同时，车用电子、工控及功率半导体等应用需求改善，也为中小尺寸硅晶圆提供了额外支撑。供给端方面，全球硅晶圆市场高度集中，信越化学、SUMCO、环球晶等少数巨头占据主导地位。硅晶圆扩产周期漫长，从设备采购到产能爬坡需18至24个月。在2024至2025年的行业低谷期，主要制造商大幅削减资本支出，短期新增产能难以快速上线。

四 | 中国台湾三大硅晶圆供应商已释放明确涨价信号。

五 | 环球晶表示，近期终端市场需求逐步改善，产业链库存调整较过去健康。台胜科已开始与客户沟通价格调整机制，看好下半年营运优于上半年。合晶也确认正积极与客户洽谈报价调整，目前市场供不应求。 SEMI数据显示，2025年全球半导体材料市场收入达732亿美元，同比增长6.8%，其中晶圆制造材料收入458亿美元。

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